We've heard estimates of $200-$400K surplus for the school year from the district office.
What has not been clear is whether that projected surplus considers the $350-$700K planned to be used from fund balance this year. Or is that $200-400K over and above (meaning we would actually INCREASE rather than decrease fund balance)?
All good questions for which we currently lack answers.
And since the district is showing very few of its cards regarding the 2012-13 budget, let's just shake the trees a bit and see what falls out, shall we?
We looked at just NINE budget "lines", and we see approximately $635K of surplus just from those lines alone. Of course their could be some hefty shortages in some budget lines of which we have not been forewarned. But let's just focus on what we can (and you should too) see in just 9 simple budget lines.
1. Line 331 Gas for Heat
Through March (75% of the fiscal year) only 61% of budget had been spent. 14% unspent after 3/4 of the year is complete would suggest that we might logically end up as much as 18.7% under budget. 18.7% of a $305,518 budget would translate to a surplus of $57,000.
Looking at it another way, $120K of the budget remains unspent. Last year, Gas expenses for April through June were $57K. This year, we have averaged $23K per month. Based on this year's spending trend, we could project spending about $69K. That tells us that we can project a surplus of $51-$61K. Compare that to our earlier projection, and it seems realistic to expect about $60K surplus.
2. Line 337 Water
Through March (75% of the fiscal year) only 51% of budget had been spent. 24% unspent after 3/4 of the year is complete would suggest that we might logically end up as much as 32% under budget. 32% of a $55,030 budget would translate to a surplus of $17,600.
Looking at it another way, $27K of the budget remains unspent. Last year, expenses for April through June were $10K. This year, we have averaged $3,500 per month. Based on this year's spending trend, we could project spending about another $10.5K. That tells us that we can project a surplus of $17K. Compare that to our earlier projection, and it seems realistic to expect about $17K surplus.
3. Line 336 Electricity
Through March (75% of the fiscal year) only 63% of budget had been spent. 12% unspent after 3/4 of the year is complete would suggest that we might logically end up as much as 16% under budget. 16% of a $1,209,019 budget would translate to a surplus of $193,443.
Looking at it another way, $452K of the budget remains unspent. Last year, expenses for April through June were $295K. This year, we have averaged $95K per month. Based on this year's spending trend, we could project spending about another $285K. That tells us that we can project a surplus of $157-167K. Compare that to our earlier projection, and it seems realistic to expect about $160K surplus.
4. Line 411 Supplies
Through March (75% of the fiscal year) only 57% of budget had been spent. 18% unspent after 3/4 of the year is complete would suggest that we might logically end up as much as 24% under budget. 24% of a $1,101,715 budget would translate to a surplus of $264,411. Note that with the March budget adjustments, this line was LOWERED by $56K! This however, is a line that gets spent down heavily in the last few months. Hmmmm.
Looking at it another way, $331K of the budget remains unspent. Last year, expenses for April through June were $248K. This year, we have averaged $76K per month. Based on this year's spending trend, we could project spending about another $228K. That tells us that we can project a surplus of $83-103K.
Compare that to our earlier projection, and it seems realistic to expect at least $80K surplus.
5. Line 490 Other Non-Capital Objects
Through March (75% of the fiscal year) only 16% of budget had been spent (Nope, not a typo...16% spent to-date). 84% unspent after 3/4 of the year is complete would suggest that we might logically end up as much as 89% under budget. 89% of a $81,150 budget would translate to a surplus of $72K. Note that with the March budget adjustments, this line was INCREASED by $7K! Why on earth would we budget MORE for a budget line that has only spent 16% of its total budget to-date? Hmmmm.
Looking at it another way, $58K of the budget remains unspent. Last year, expenses for April through June were $10K. This year, we have averaged $1,500 per month. Based on this year's spending trend, we could project spending about another $3.5K. That tells us that we can project a surplus of $48-55K.
Compare that to our earlier projection, and it seems realistic to expect at least $50K surplus.
6. Line 109 Substitutes (Teachers)
Through March (75% of the fiscal year) only 57% of budget had been spent. 18% unspent after 3/4 of the year is complete would suggest that we might logically end up as much as 24% under budget. 18% of a $1,157,033 budget would translate to a surplus of $268K. Note that with the March budget adjustments, this line was DECREASED by $100K! Hmmmm. Seems like someone saw what we see. But, the trend is for a much higher substitute cost in the spring. Teachers playing hooky when the weather gets nice?
Looking at it another way, $496K of the budget remains unspent. Last year, expenses for April through June were $391K. This year, we have averaged $73K per month. Based on this year's spending trend, we could project spending about another $220K. That tells us that we can project a surplus of $105-276K.
Compare that to our earlier projection, and it seems realistic to expect at least $100K surplus.
7. Line 310 Personal Services (Send Lawyers, Guns and Money)
Through March (75% of the fiscal year) only 59% of budget had been spent. 16% unspent after 3/4 of the year is complete would suggest that we might logically end up as much as 21% under budget. 21% of a $1,109,139 budget would translate to a surplus of $233K. Note that with the March budget adjustments, this line was INcreased by $1,100! Ummm...what's the point of raising a $1.1M budget by $1,100?Hmmmm.
Looking at it another way, $378K of the budget remains unspent. Last year, expenses for April through June totaled $321K. This year, we have averaged $72K per month. Based on this year's spending trend, we could project spending about another $216K. That tells us that we can project a surplus of $57-162K.
Compare that to our earlier projection, and it seems realistic to expect at least $55K surplus. Even if we expel all 6 of the pot brownie boys. :-)
8. Line 342 Employee Travel
Through March (75% of the fiscal year) only 52% of budget had been spent. 23% unspent after 3/4 of the year is complete would suggest that we might logically end up as much as 30% under budget. 30% of a $80,151 budget would translate to a surplus of $24K. Note that with the March budget adjustments, this line was DEcreased by $3,600.
Looking at it another way, $40K of the budget remains unspent. Last year, expenses for April through June totaled $12K. This year, we have averaged $5K per month. Based on this year's spending trend, we could project spending about another $15K. That tells us that we can project a surplus of $25-28K.
Compare that to our earlier projection, and it seems realistic to expect at least $25K surplus.
9. Line 940 Dues & Fees
Through March (75% of the fiscal year) only 53% of budget had been spent. 22% unspent after 3/4 of the year is complete would suggest that we might logically end up as much as 29% under budget. 29% of a $338,349 budget would translate to a surplus of $98K. Note that with the March budget adjustments, this line was DEcreased by $8,500.
Looking at it another way, $148K of the budget remains unspent. Last year, expenses for April through June totaled $41K. This year, we have averaged $20K per month. Based on this year's spending trend, we could project spending about another $60K. That tells us that we can project a surplus of $88-107K.
Compare that to our earlier projection, and it seems realistic to expect at least $88K surplus.
Y'all do the math. See if you see differently. Now...the district could, of course, suddenly accelerate its spending in these lines, or magically transfer the overages to other budget lines. The bottom line is that over-budgeting is the oldest trick in the books to increase fund balance. Oh, gee....we over spent? No...no...you have it all wrong...we were just being frugal. Guess we'll just have to put the surplus into fund balance.
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