Monday, May 28, 2012

Elementary space - pt 2: two definitions of capacity

In part 1 of this series we (hopefully) tucked the idea that we REALLY need to build a school right this second  safely into bed.  We're just not growing anywhere near the rate we did 4-5 years ago.  In addition, none us believe that growth is going to explode at projected rates in the next year or so either.  Before that can happen, we need to get beyond June 5th.  Further, we need to get this economy settled.  It continues to move at 2 steps forward followed by 1-2 steps backward.  Newsflash, people....what happens in Europe DOES eventually affect us.  For now, it's time to talk capacity.  And we need to talk about TWO KINDS of capacity.


#2 We need to identify BOTH individual building and district-wide capacity. 


Individual school capacity
Despite what Dr. Culver might think, we DO need to know what the realistic maximum capacity of each school is.  Perhaps Dr. C has visions of retirement sugarplums dancing in his head, preventing him from seeing clearly.  Lord knows we wouldn't think for one minute that he is not operating with an open mind.

Does a hotel have a single capacity?  Or is it based cumulative based on maximum number of individuals allowed in each room?  We seem to recall these things called fire codes which establish a "capacity" for the number of individuals in a given room.  Otherwise, we could have a hotel with numerous room vacancies yet too many individuals in a ballroom for some crazy party or celebration.  What about elevators?  Don't they have individual capacities based on their size and lift mechanisms?  You know those crazy college kids....we could envision a scenario in which 3 elevators are empty while a fourth is packed like a can of sardines full of coeds.

In a school district, we have buildings of all different sizes.  We have Horizon with 94,000 square feet and then we have the runt of the litter (size-wise, people!), Eastside, with just under 67,000 square feet.  Yet they both have the same "capacity" (516 kids) listed in the annual meeting book.  How can that be?  Horizon's principal is quick to point to the stairwells in the school as space hogs.  Might have a small effect, but we're not buying the whole enchilada there.  More to the point is that Eastside actually has more kids this year than Horizon!

516 is a magic number.
For non-SAGE schools, the district lists capacity as "516", although through time that number has changed from a high of 540 kids. Where does the number 540 come from?  It assumes that each school is designed with 24 classrooms, with 4 for each grade level.  Then we simply multiply 4 grades times the "class size target" at each grade.  The class size targets are 18 kids for Kindergarten, 19 for 1st grade and 20 kids for 2nd grade.  Then it jumps to 23 kids for 3rd grade, 24 for 4th grade, and 25 for 5th grade.

Target?  or Capacity?
It's confusing...we know.  But that's the way SPASD Administration wants it.  If you're confused, you're more likely to nod your head assuming that you should understand ...and walk away.   Is the class size "target" equal to "capacity?   We don't see it that way.  If you've purchased a new car in the last 5-8 years, the manual will tell you that the oil needs to be changed every 5,000 miles.   When you get your oil changed, however, the shop will invariably place a sticker indicating that your next oil change is due in 3,000 miles.  Hey...it works.  They get the revenue from those poor saps that follow the sticker.  Would it hurt to change your oil every 3,000 miles? Hell no!  But do you NEED to do it that often.  Hell no, again!  Is it something to aim for?  Sure.  Kinda like...like...um...er....a TARGET!  But the maximum...thew capacity if you will....is 5,000 miles.  Change your oil before it hits 5,000, or suffer the consequences.

So...what's capacity for an elementary school?  Well...the dirty little secret is that each school and each grade operate on a "+2" system, meaning that for kindergarten, a class can have as many as 20 kids before something needs to happen (move to another class or shuttle to another school).  The same holds true for every grade (in a non-SAGE school).   So...doesn't that make the real capacity of a school 564 (20,21,22,25,26,27 x 4 sections each)?  Now before you shoot us, let's remember the oil change rule.  5,000 is the top end; you don't want to exceed it, but you don't want to flirt there either.

No style points for packaging
Unfortunately, kids don't come in perfectly sized groups.  That's why Northside currently has 5 sections each of kindergarten and 1st grade.   Although a SAGE school, which has smaller class maximum sizes for grades K-3, CH Bird has 5 sections each of grades K-2.   On the other end of the spectrum, Creekside has only 2 sections of 5th grade.

That's the downside of this grade-specific class size target/capacity.   75 Kindergartners in a school means 4 classrooms, but if they were 5th graders, we'd only need 3 classrooms.  If we had a single class capacity for all grades, X amount of kids means Y number of classrooms are needed.

District-wide capacity
Once we have established the capacities of each of the schools, then the district-wide capacity is simply the sum of all the individual school capacities.   The UW's Applied Population Lab (APL) makes district wide projections, not school-specific progressions.  Projections are made based on births as well as grade projections (the historical relationship of number of students at a grade level one year, to the number  of students at the next grade level the following year.

We might have 500 first grader this year (actually it's about 562) but that doesn't not means that we'll have 500 second graders next year.  Families move into the district; families move out.  Some families remain in the district but send their kids to a private school or a virtual school.  But, with enough data, we can make a mathematical progression of how this year's 1st grade enrollment may translate to next year's 2nd grade enrollment.

Why we need both - two different triggers for action
If a district has 6 elementary schools that are half full but a 7th that exceeds "capacity", then the solution to the problem is not to build an 8th school...can we agree on that?  Unless, of course, we also are projecting such rapid growth that in a couple of years ALL schools will be full.  And that, Dr. Culver, is why we need to define what capacity is for a given school.

Sun Prairie currently has two schools (Eastside and Horizon) that are getting cramped. Using the district's own "+2" definition of capacity (564), both these schools are at 88% of capacity.  Creekside, on the other hand, is just under 70% capacity.  Westside sits at 66% using the same basis.   District-wide, the elementary schools are at 80% of capacity.  So....while 2-3 schools are getting tight, does that mean the district needs an 8th school within a couple of years?  We don't thinks so.

That being said, SOMETHING needs to be done to alleviate the crowding at Eastside, Horizon, and even Northside.  But rather than build a new school, adding $20-22M to what is already the 2nd highest debt levy in the state, maybe we could do something else.  Maybe we could take some action to better utilize space within the district at the elementary level.

The important take-away message here is that when a couple of schools are straining at the edges of capacity, we might need to take some action that will address those schools.  When the straining is being felt at a curriculum level across the district, however, THAT is the time to start seriously looking at adding a new school.

Defining "action"
There are many actions that COULD be taken.  For instance, all the pre-K special Ed kids are housed at Northside, which is on the cusp of feeling crowded.  Why would the district not move those kids/that program over to Creekside, which has plenty of space?  That is such a simple solution which would give Northside (86% of capacity) a little breathing space.

While nobody likes to talk about it, perhaps a minor boundary shift would direct more students from Horizon into Royal Oaks and from Eastside to Creekside.  Yes, many folks are still feeling the pain of the last boundary change fiasco.   Hell...the folks in Bristol, got the finger...remember?  But at issue here is like the difference between a good dentist and a not-so-good one.  With a good dentist, you feel little or no pain from the procedure.  For the last  boundary change, we had a poor dentist on the job that was doing extractions without Novocain.  So let's get another "dentist" to handle the next boundary change.

What about moving SAGE from Bird to Creekside? Creekside could better handle the reduced class sizes at grades K-3.  Or maybe we decide to offer SAGE at only grades K-2....or K and 1.

What's important is that there ARE other options than building a new school.

We could discuss changing grade configurations.  Perhaps moving some or all 5th graders into the middle schools.  Or perhaps using four of the elementary schools as K-2 schools and three as 3-5 schools.